Sustainable Bioethanol Supply Potential: United States and Brazil
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GCGF has released two new studies examining the long term supply potential of sustainable bioethanol from the United States and Brazil, the two largest producers in the global ethanol market.
Together, these countries account for the majority of global ethanol production and play a central role in supplying low-carbon fuels for transport.
Ethanol’s Role in Transport Decarbonisation
Bioethanol is already widely used in road transport as a gasoline blend, delivering meaningful emissions reductions while leveraging existing fuel infrastructure. Studies show ethanol can achieve 65–78% lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared with gasoline, depending on production pathway and feedstock.
Beyond road transport, ethanol is increasingly being explored for additional applications including:
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) through ethanol-to-jet pathways
Marine fuels, particularly within emerging alcohol-fuel engine technologies
Industrial and energy applications supported by biogenic CO₂ utilisation
Brazil: A Diversified Ethanol System
Brazil’s ethanol industry using second crop corn production systems, allows year round production and improved agricultural efficiency. This model enables strong carbon performance, with ethanol from Brazilian pathways capable of delivering 72–83% lower carbon intensity than gasoline.
The research indicates that Brazil could produce approximately 39 billion litres of ethanol annually under a baseline scenario by 2035, with potential to reach 54–68 billion litres through continued improvements in agricultural productivity and feedstock utilisation.
United States: Scale and Infrastructure
The United States remains the largest ethanol producer globally, supported by extensive agricultural production and established biofuel infrastructure. The studies project that U.S. bioethanol production could reach 18–23 billion gallons annually by 2035 depending on productivity improvements and policy developments.
Looking Ahead
As global transport sectors pursue lower-carbon energy solutions, bioethanol offers a scalable and immediately deployable pathway that complements emerging fuels and technologies. These studies provide new insights into how established ethanol industries can continue contributing to global decarbonisation efforts.
“Bioethanol is already one of the most widely deployed low-carbon fuels globally today. These studies highlight how advanced agricultural systems, established infrastructure and supportive policy frameworks in the United States and Brazil create a reliable foundation for expanding sustainable bioethanol supply. As transport sectors pursue realistic decarbonisation pathways, bioethanol can play an important role across road, aviation and maritime fuels while maintaining competitive economics.”
— Clarence Woo, Managing Director, Global Centre for Green Fuels