Global Gasoline Demand Trends and Outlook

shawndass
Jul 8
2 min read

Global gasoline demand is nearing a turning point. After over a century of consistent growth, consumption is projected to peak as early as 2025 and enter long-term structural decline. This shift is being driven by a powerful combination of electric vehicle adoption, fuel efficiency improvements, and tightening climate policies. According to updated forecasts, global gasoline use could fall by over 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040 compared to current levels—marking a historic reversal in road transport fuel trends.

While the decline is global, the pace varies by region. The U.S., Europe, and China, currently responsible for more than half of global demand are all on track to see falling consumption by the end of this decade. China’s rapid EV adoption and Europe’s internal combustion engine bans are accelerating this transition. In contrast, emerging economies across Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia continue to see growing gasoline demand due to rising vehicle ownership. However, even in these regions, peak demand is likely to occur before mid-century.

Several factors are shaping this transition:

Electrification is the most significant, with EVs forecasted to comprise nearly 40% of the global car fleet by 2040.
Fuel efficiency gains mean that even traditional gasoline vehicles are consuming less fuel per kilometer.
Policy pressure such as zero-emission mandates and EV subsidies, is accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels.

In this context, ethanol blending plays a crucial transitional role. By reducing the carbon intensity of gasoline, ethanol offers near-term emissions reductions while complementing electrification efforts—particularly in markets where EV uptake is slower or infrastructure remains underdeveloped. Countries that scale up ethanol blends can reduce overall fuel emissions without waiting for full electrification.

The global consensus is clear: gasoline will not return to sustained growth. Instead, the world is entering a new phase—one of plateau and gradual decline. This presents both challenges and opportunities for fuel producers, refiners, and low-carbon alternatives like biofuels. Understanding these demand shifts is critical for shaping resilient energy and climate strategies.

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Reference

1. International Energy Agency (IEA)

Oil 2025: Analysis and Forecast to 2030. Paris: IEA, June 2025. Projects refined product demand peaking in 2027, driven by gasoline and diesel decline.

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2. Bloomberg NEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance)

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025. Bloomberg Finance L.P., 2025. Forecasts 22M EVs sold in 2025 and ~25% share of new car sales globally.

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3. Reuters

"World oil demand to keep growing this decade despite 2027 China peak, IEA says.” Reuters, June 2025.

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4. S&P Global

"Global gasoline demand to peak in 2025.” Oil & Gas Journal, July 2025.

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5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook 2024. U.S. Department of Energy, April 2024. Updates on U.S. gasoline trends and EV adoption.